Bihar elections 2020: High-stake battle for NDA, Mahagathbandhan in second phase of polling | Explained
The second phase of the Bihar elections will likely decide the electoral fate of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) among others, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan. The second phase is also considered crucial for Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial face and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad's son - Tejashwi Yadav.
The second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections is crucial for the fortunes of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as well as the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. November 3 will witness elections in central Bihar which includes Tirhut, Mithilanchal and Kosi region.
Elections will also take place in some remaining areas of the Patna and Nalanda district. The second phase of Bihar elections will take place at 94 seats spread across 17 districts.
In 2015, when the RJD, Congress and Janata Dal (United) were together they had secured 70 of the 94 seats in an alliance. The RJD won 33 seats, JD(U) 30 and Congress 7. But Nitish Kumar’s exit from the Mahagathbandhan altered equations. With Nitish Kumar on BJP’s side this time, the second phase of elections will be extremely crucial for the BJP as this phase is now being considered a stronghold of the party.
The first phase of elections was majorly stronghold of Mahagathbandhan as elections were held in Naxal-hit areas where Left parties, CPI, CPM and CPI (ML) played an important role for the Mahagathbandhan.
In 2015, the BJP had won just 20 seats of the 94 which goes to polls in the second phase of the Bihar elections.
In the first phase, the BJP contested 29 of the 71 seats while JD(U) 35 -- in a clear indication that stakes were high for Nitish Kumar in the first phase.
WHY IS THE SECOND PHASE OF BIHAR POLLS CRUCIAL FOR THE NDA?
In the second phase, the BJP is contesting 46 of the 94 seats which is the highest in all three phases. BJP's alliance partner Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is also contesting on five seats in the second phase, therefore the BJP and VIP together are contesting on 51 of the 94 seats -- which is more than 55 per cent of the seats which go to polls in the second phase. The JD(U) is fighting on the remaining 43 seats.
Perhaps, this is one of the reasons why Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed seven public meetings while campaigning for the second phase -- the most in the three-phase elections in Bihar.
The districts that go to polls in the second phase are Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, Siwan, Chhapra, Vaishali, Samastipur, Begusarai, Khagariya, Bhagalpur, Nalanda and Patna.
In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP alone had emerged victorious in Begusarai, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Maharajganj, Muzaffarpur, Paschim Champaran, Patna, Purvi Champaran, Chhapra and Sheohar seats which is 10 out of 17 districts going to polls in the second phase of the Bihar elections. The Champaran region has always been a stronghold for the BJP. In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, despite contesting against the RJD and JD(U), the BJP managed to win 13 of the 21 seats in both east and west Champaran.
CASTE MATRIX ADVANTAGE BJP?
The second phase of election is important for the NDA, primarily BJP, because of two reasons:
The region which goes to polls in the second phase has a significant number of upper caste and Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) voters. The EBC population have also been in the decisive position in districts like Bhagalpur, Khagaria and Vaishali. The EBCs, popularly known as ‘pachpaniya’ (a group of 55 castes/sub-castes) in Bihar, include Mallah (Nishad), Lohars, Kumhars, Badadhis, Sunars, Tatwas, Telis, Kahars and Kewats.
Among these castes, the Mallah/Nishad community has a very significant number in districts like Darbhanga, Madhubani, Khagaria and Muzaffarpur which has tilted towards the BJP and the JD(U).
It is also to be seen whether ‘Son of Mallah’ Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insaan Party, who joined the NDA in the run-up to the elections, will be able to translate the Mallah votes in favour of the NDA. Mukesh Sahni is fighting on 11 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections.
Brahmins in Mithilanchal and Tirhut region have also been dominating local politics. Similarly, Rajputs have been in power in Chhapra and Tirhut. The upper castes have been supporting the BJP strongly for the past two decades in Bihar.
The VIP is fighting on five seats in the second phase of elections, clearly indicating the significance of EBC votes in this phase.
PRESTIGE BATTLE FOR MAHAGATHBANDHAN TOO
In the second phase, the RJD is contesting 56 seats, Congress 24, CPI-ML (Liberation) six and the CPI and CPM are contesting four seats each.
Among the prominent candidates whose fate will be decided in the second phase of Bihar elections include RJD’s chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav contesting from Raghopur, his brother and former minister Tej Pratap Yadav from Hasanpur, and several ministers in the state government.
The RJD has a strong Muslim-Yadav base in seats of Saran and Mithilanchal regions. The Muslim population in the second phase constituencies is much higher than in phase one. Hence, the RJD will benefit from this strong M-Y equation but it may be not sufficient for the party. The RJD will need additional support from a section of EBC and upper castes voters.
A major chunk of the migrant population belongs to seats like Darbhanga, Madhubani, Khagaria and Champaran which fall in the second phase of elections. It will be interesting to watch how this vote bank impacts the second phase.
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